As this bizarre election season enters its final stretch, both candidates for the 13th District’s state House seat are well-funded and itching for a rematch. The big question on their minds: How will GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump’s presence on the ballot affect voter turnout?

Incumbent Republican Eddie Smith beat Democratic challenger Gloria Johnson by a mere 182 votes in the 2014 election. Johnson says low Democratic voter turnout in the midterms accounted for the loss of her seat. Her prospects look better this year; even Smith concedes that point.

“I think it’s going to be difficult,” Smith says of retaining his seat during an interview at his campaign office in East Knoxville.

Johnson says her base is galvanized by support for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton—and distaste for Trump. But turnout, which she says is traditionally low among Democrats during midterm elections, is key.

“When more people go vote, I win,” she says at Knox County Democratic Party headquarters. That was the case in 2012, when she beat Republican Gary Loe by 288 votes in a three-way race with independent Nick Cazana. Nearly 21,000 people voted that year; only 13,278 people cast ballots in 2014, when Smith eked out the general election win following a close GOP primary against Jason Emert. That race was also close—Smith won by 38 votes.

It is a closely divided district, and Republicans fear that Trump’s recently publicized comments condoning sexual assault—and more recent allegations from women who say Trump sexually assaulted them—could lead GOP voters to stay home Nov. 8. But Democrats might not generate a big turnout, either.

“It’s my sense that Democrats are not very happy with Hillary Clinton, either,” says Susan Richardson Williams, a former state GOP chairwoman and a local political observer. “It may balance itself out to be a wash on election day.”

Johnson held a press conference last week in which she urged Smith to repudiate Trump’s comments and candidacy. “My opponent’s silence indicates a lack of leadership and an inability to be part of the solution—to clean up Tennessee’s own sexual harassment scandals,” Johnson announced at the conference.

Smith, while agreeing that Trump’s comments were “reprehensible and repugnant,” says Johnson is merely diverting attention from the local race. “This issue once again showcases my opponent’s desire to focus on any issue other than those directly affecting the lives of residents in this district,” he said in a statement following Johnson’s press conference.

Meanwhile, Williams says she and other local Republican leaders will stand by Trump.

Williams says she was “very offended” by Trump’s comments, in which he bragged to a reporter about his supposed sway over women as a powerful figure and said he could simply grab a woman by her genitals. But Williams, sticking to GOP talking points, says, “I know what kind of president Hillary Clinton will be,” claiming she will raise taxes and pursue health care policies unpopular with the GOP base.

“We know her. Trump could surprise me. I hold out hope that if he’s elected he’ll be a better president than hoped,” she says. “Unfortunately we’ve descended into the gutter when it comes to politics.”

Knox County GOP chairman Buddy Burkhardt cites Christian values in backing Trump despite his missteps. “He who is without sin, let him cast the first stone,” he says. “Donald Trump was elected in a popular vote to receive the nomination to run for president on the Republican ticket, and that still stands.”

Smith, for his part, says he has not yet made up his mind whether he will vote for Trump.

***

Johnson—who retains a nameplate that reads “Rep. Johnson” on her desk not far from a package of bacon jerky—says she would indeed represent the will of the people should she win. The electorate supports Insure Tennessee, Gov. Bill Haslam’s proposal to expand Medicaid coverage to 200,000 uninsured Tennesseans earning less than 138 percent of the federal poverty level, she says. (Haslam did not accept federal funds to expand TennCare under the Affordable Care Act.)

Voters are also opposed to diverting state funds to voucher programs or charter schools, Johnson—a former special-education teacher—adds. She says Smith didn’t respond to a request for a debate about education, but hopes at least one candidate forum will take place prior to the election. It is, she says, “unfair to voters to not have an open discussion.” (The League of Women Voters was unable to find a debate date agreeable to both candidates, though Johnson made herself available.)

Smith pins his hopes on constituents rewarding him for a range of area transportation programs he takes credit for, though some were years in the making. He cites improvements to Alcoa Highway, planned improvements to Interstate 640 interchanges, and increased money for the transportation state-aid program, which he says has provided Knox County and Knoxville extra money for street-paving programs.

He plans to keep his focus on jobs, education, and infrastructure, and is personally vested in an anti-bullying bill that would step up school-system responses to bullying claims; his own daughter, who is homeschooled with his other child, was a victim of harassment and bullying, he says.

As for health insurance expansion, he says he plans a bill that would increase incentives for small businesses that offer health insurance to their employees.

But he is well aware of the “battleground district” the 13th has become, and he raised $50,000—including $20,000 from political action committees largely outside of Knoxville—in the third quarter for the campaign.

Johnson, who has raised $55,000 in the third quarter, largely through individual donations, says she won’t have “all the outside money” that Smith has raised through PACs, but she has more than 200 volunteers working on her campaign.

Smith reported an ending balance of $102,000 on his third-quarter financial disclosure filing after spending $10,000 in August, September, and November. Johnson spent four times that much during the period, and reported $73,000 heading into the final five weeks before the election.

She hopes to have at least two more fundraisers, including a performance from former Knoxville singer/songwriter Scott Miller, set for Monday at a home on Cherokee Boulevard.

“The reality is I’m going to support every single person in the district,” should she win the rubber match with Smith, she says.

Both Democrats and Republicans are guilty of extremes, she says: “Ideas begin in the middle.” 

Eddie Smith

Job: Incumbent 13th District state House representative
Age: 37
Education: Tusculum College; business and organizational management
Prior Political Experience: First-term 13th district representative
Family: Wife, Lanna; two children

Gloria Johnson

Job: Retired Knox County Schools special-education teacher
Age: 54
Education: University of Tennessee; education
Prior Political Experience: 13th District state House representative, 2012-2014
Family: Single, no children

Thomas Fraser

Knox County-based journalist Thomas Fraser is a native of Charleston, S.C. who grew up in Oak Ridge and Knoxville. He is a graduate of the University of Tennessee and has worked as an editor and reporter for daily newspapers and websites in Tennessee, North Carolina, New Jersey and Virginia.